2026 FIFA World Cup

Tournament winner odds · Monte Carlo over 10000 simulations · Elo v1 baseline

Team	Win%	Final%	SF%	QF%	R16%	R32%
1 Argentina ARG	19.4%	29.3%	43.8%	61.4%	80.1%	99%
2 France FRA	13.7%	23.6%	37.7%	56.2%	77.3%	100%
3 Spain ESP	13.0%	22.4%	36.5%	54.9%	76.2%	100%
4 England ENG	9.6%	17.5%	31.3%	49.6%	73.4%	100%
5 Brazil BRA	8.5%	16.6%	29.2%	48.6%	72.8%	100%
6 Portugal POR	7.4%	14.6%	26.6%	45.4%	70.6%	100%
7 Netherlands NED	6.0%	12.9%	24.6%	43.5%	69.8%	100%
8 Belgium BEL	5.0%	11.4%	22.8%	40.6%	67.6%	100%
9 Germany GER	4.5%	9.9%	20.7%	39.0%	65.9%	100%
10 Croatia CRO	2.4%	6.7%	15.7%	33.4%	61.2%	99%
11 Mexico MEX	2.0%	5.6%	13.4%	30.4%	58.5%	99%
12 United States USA	1.9%	5.5%	14.3%	31.0%	57.8%	96%
13 Uruguay URU	1.6%	4.5%	12.1%	28.6%	58.1%	100%
14 Colombia COL	1.0%	3.6%	10.8%	25.9%	55.2%	99%
15 Morocco MAR	0.9%	3.4%	9.7%	24.7%	53.8%	98%
16 Japan JPN	0.8%	2.7%	8.6%	23.1%	51.0%	96%
17 Senegal SEN	0.7%	2.3%	7.3%	20.9%	50.0%	97%
18 Switzerland SUI	0.6%	1.9%	6.8%	19.8%	47.7%	98%
19 South Korea KOR	0.2%	1.1%	3.9%	14.1%	40.5%	93%
20 Ecuador ECU	0.2%	0.9%	3.5%	12.6%	37.5%	93%
21 Austria AUT	0.2%	0.8%	3.5%	11.5%	31.2%	68%
22 Australia AUS	0.1%	0.7%	2.6%	9.6%	29.2%	70%
23 Egypt EGY	0.1%	0.6%	2.7%	10.4%	34.1%	89%
24 Türkiye TUR	0.1%	0.4%	2.3%	8.2%	26.3%	64%
25 Ivory Coast CIV	0.1%	0.3%	1.4%	7.3%	27.3%	82%
26 Qatar QAT	0.0%	0.1%	1.1%	4.9%	21.6%	72%
27 Canada CAN	0.0%	0.1%	1.0%	5.3%	22.4%	74%
28 Tunisia TUN	0.0%	0.1%	0.9%	5.4%	20.8%	64%
29 Jordan JOR	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	1.8%	9.6%	39%
30 Paraguay PAR	0.0%	0.2%	1.1%	4.8%	16.8%	49%
31 Sweden SWE	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	1.7%	11%
32 Panama PAN	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	1.5%	11%
33 Scotland SCO	0.0%	0.1%	0.6%	3.7%	17.5%	61%
34 Uzbekistan UZB	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	2.0%	11.3%	49%
35 Cape Verde CPV	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	1.3%	12%
36 Iran IRN	0.0%	0.2%	1.2%	7.1%	26.9%	81%
37 Ghana GHA	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	1.9%	10.2%	45%
38 New Zealand NZL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	1.0%	8%
39 Congo DR COD	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	1.4%	12%
40 Iraq IRQ	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	1.5%	8.5%	41%
41 Haiti HAI	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	1.1%	8%
42 Algeria ALG	0.0%	0.1%	0.7%	4.0%	15.6%	47%
43 Czechia CZE	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	4.0%	22%
44 Bosnia-Herzegovina BIH	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	1.0%	6.5%	34%
45 South Africa RSA	0.0%	0.1%	0.6%	3.1%	15.4%	58%
46 Curaçao CUW	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.7%	6%
47 Saudi Arabia KSA	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	1.0%	7.9%	41%
48 Norway NOR	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	3.1%	18%

Model: Elo ratings seeded from FIFA June 2026 rankings, Monte Carlo simulation of group stage (Poisson goals) and knockout bracket. Group-stage results already played are clamped; remaining matches are sampled. Top 8 favorites highlighted. Updated every process restart.