2026 FIFA World Cup

Tournament winner odds · Monte Carlo over 10000 simulations · Elo v1 baseline

Team	Win%	Final%	SF%	QF%	R16%	R32%
1 Argentina ARG	19.8%	29.9%	43.8%	61.4%	80.5%	100%
2 France FRA	13.9%	24.2%	38.9%	57.1%	78.5%	100%
3 Spain ESP	13.2%	23.0%	36.7%	55.7%	77.5%	100%
4 England ENG	9.7%	18.4%	31.4%	50.5%	74.3%	100%
5 Brazil BRA	8.2%	16.4%	30.2%	49.3%	73.4%	100%
6 Portugal POR	7.2%	14.4%	27.1%	46.2%	72.4%	100%
7 Netherlands NED	6.5%	13.1%	25.4%	44.4%	70.8%	100%
8 Belgium BEL	4.7%	10.6%	22.4%	41.9%	68.8%	100%
9 Germany GER	4.4%	10.0%	21.4%	40.2%	67.4%	100%
10 Croatia CRO	2.4%	6.9%	16.9%	34.7%	63.7%	100%
11 United States USA	2.2%	6.1%	15.6%	33.3%	62.2%	100%
12 Mexico MEX	2.1%	6.0%	14.6%	32.4%	61.7%	100%
13 Colombia COL	1.3%	4.1%	11.4%	28.1%	57.2%	100%
14 Morocco MAR	1.1%	3.7%	10.7%	27.2%	56.2%	100%
15 Senegal SEN	0.9%	2.7%	7.9%	22.8%	53.0%	100%
16 Japan JPN	0.8%	2.8%	9.2%	25.4%	55.7%	100%
17 Switzerland SUI	0.5%	2.2%	7.9%	22.8%	52.4%	100%
18 Austria AUT	0.4%	1.6%	5.7%	18.4%	49.0%	100%
19 Australia AUS	0.2%	0.7%	4.0%	15.9%	44.9%	100%
20 Ecuador ECU	0.2%	1.0%	4.3%	15.3%	44.7%	100%
21 Egypt EGY	0.1%	0.8%	3.4%	13.7%	41.9%	100%
22 Ivory Coast CIV	0.1%	0.4%	2.0%	10.3%	36.5%	100%
23 Paraguay PAR	0.1%	0.4%	2.7%	11.3%	38.5%	100%
24 South Africa RSA	0.0%	0.1%	1.1%	6.7%	30.5%	100%
25 Iran IRN	0.0%	0.3%	2.3%	10.5%	37.1%	100%
26 Norway NOR	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	2.6%	19.5%	100%
27 Congo DR COD	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	1.7%	16.0%	100%
28 Saudi Arabia KSA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0%
29 Jordan JOR	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0%
30 Bosnia-Herzegovina BIH	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	3.7%	22.8%	100%
31 Canada CAN	0.0%	0.2%	1.3%	8.2%	33.5%	100%
32 New Zealand NZL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0%
33 Haiti HAI	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0%
34 Uzbekistan UZB	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0%
35 Qatar QAT	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0%
36 Czechia CZE	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0%
37 Cape Verde CPV	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	1.1%	13.5%	100%
38 South Korea KOR	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0%
39 Sweden SWE	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.7%	20.0%	100%
40 Türkiye TUR	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0%
41 Panama PAN	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0%
42 Iraq IRQ	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0%
43 Tunisia TUN	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0%
44 Curaçao CUW	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0%
45 Algeria ALG	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0%
46 Uruguay URU	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0%
47 Scotland SCO	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0%
48 Ghana GHA	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%	4.7%	26.3%	100%

Model: Elo ratings seeded from FIFA June 2026 rankings, Monte Carlo simulation of group stage (Poisson goals) and knockout bracket. Group-stage results already played are clamped; remaining matches are sampled. Top 8 favorites highlighted. Updated every process restart.