Model grading
Every prediction shown on a detail page is persisted to ModelRun;
once the actual outcome is knowable, it's stitched in. This page aggregates
real-world accuracy as it lands, so the headline test-set numbers from
training can be checked against deployed reality.
nhl_team_winner
6976 graded predictions65%
in-the-wild accuracy
4524/6976
correct calls
pga_score_regressor
8833 graded predictionsPer-stat MAE (in-the-wild)
avg_round_score
4.84
ufc_fighter_stats
17278 graded predictionsPer-stat MAE (in-the-wild)
SigStrikesLanded
22.97
SigStrikesAttempted
50.27
TakedownsLanded
1.1
Knockdowns
0.34
ufc_method
8833 graded predictions54%
in-the-wild accuracy
4727/8833
correct calls
wc26_match_winner
104 graded predictionsRecent graded calls
| Graded | Model | Event | Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ufc_fighter_stats | UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodr… | {'Knockdowns': 0.1, 'TakedownsLanded': 0.4, 'SigStrikesLand… | {'Knockdowns': 0, 'ControlTime': '0:00', 'TakedownsLanded':… | |
| ufc_fighter_stats | UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodr… | {'Knockdowns': 0.4, 'TakedownsLanded': 2.0, 'SigStrikesLand… | {'Knockdowns': 0, 'ControlTime': '4:04', 'TakedownsLanded':… | |
| ufc_fighter_stats | UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodr… | {'Knockdowns': 0.2, 'TakedownsLanded': 0.8, 'SigStrikesLand… | {'Knockdowns': 0, 'ControlTime': '0:26', 'TakedownsLanded':… | |
| ufc_method | UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodr… | {'class': 'Decision', 'probs': {'KO/TKO': 0.241, 'Decision'… | {'method': 'Submission', 'ending_round': 1} | |
| ufc_fighter_stats | UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodr… | {'Knockdowns': 0.1, 'TakedownsLanded': 0.9, 'SigStrikesLand… | {'Knockdowns': 0, 'ControlTime': '0:00', 'TakedownsLanded':… | |
| ufc_method | UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodr… | {'class': 'KO/TKO', 'probs': {'KO/TKO': 0.513, 'Decision': … | {'method': 'KO/TKO', 'ending_round': 1} | |
| ufc_fighter_stats | UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodr… | {'Knockdowns': 0.3, 'TakedownsLanded': 0.7, 'SigStrikesLand… | {'Knockdowns': 1, 'ControlTime': '0:02', 'TakedownsLanded':… | |
| ufc_fighter_stats | UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodr… | {'Knockdowns': 0.3, 'TakedownsLanded': 1.0, 'SigStrikesLand… | {'Knockdowns': 0, 'ControlTime': '0:00', 'TakedownsLanded':… | |
| ufc_fighter_stats | UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodr… | {'Knockdowns': 0.2, 'TakedownsLanded': 1.2, 'SigStrikesLand… | {'Knockdowns': 1, 'ControlTime': '0:00', 'TakedownsLanded':… | |
| ufc_method | UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodr… | {'class': 'Decision', 'probs': {'KO/TKO': 0.2, 'Decision': … | {'method': 'KO/TKO', 'ending_round': 1} | |
| ufc_fighter_stats | UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodr… | {'Knockdowns': 0.0, 'TakedownsLanded': 1.1, 'SigStrikesLand… | {'Knockdowns': 0, 'ControlTime': '0:00', 'TakedownsLanded':… | |
| pga_score_regressor | Rocket Classic | {'projected_avg_score': 68.31} | {'actual_order': 147, 'actual_position': None, 'actual_avg_… | |
| pga_score_regressor | Rocket Classic | {'projected_avg_score': 68.0} | {'actual_order': 51, 'actual_position': None, 'actual_avg_s… | |
| pga_score_regressor | Rocket Classic | {'projected_avg_score': 67.84} | {'actual_order': 25, 'actual_position': None, 'actual_avg_s… | |
| pga_score_regressor | Rocket Classic | {'projected_avg_score': 68.14} | {'actual_order': 53, 'actual_position': None, 'actual_avg_s… | |
| pga_score_regressor | Rocket Classic | {'projected_avg_score': 68.23} | {'actual_order': 117, 'actual_position': None, 'actual_avg_… | |
| pga_score_regressor | Rocket Classic | {'projected_avg_score': 68.38} | {'actual_order': 52, 'actual_position': None, 'actual_avg_s… | |
| pga_score_regressor | Rocket Classic | {'projected_avg_score': 68.09} | {'actual_order': 141, 'actual_position': None, 'actual_avg_… | |
| pga_score_regressor | Rocket Classic | {'projected_avg_score': 67.82} | {'actual_order': 140, 'actual_position': None, 'actual_avg_… | |
| pga_score_regressor | Rocket Classic | {'projected_avg_score': 67.42} | {'actual_order': 135, 'actual_position': None, 'actual_avg_… | |
| pga_score_regressor | Rocket Classic | {'projected_avg_score': 67.67} | {'actual_order': 107, 'actual_position': None, 'actual_avg_… | |
| pga_score_regressor | Rocket Classic | {'projected_avg_score': 67.79} | {'actual_order': 87, 'actual_position': None, 'actual_avg_s… | |
| pga_score_regressor | Rocket Classic | {'projected_avg_score': 67.36} | {'actual_order': 86, 'actual_position': None, 'actual_avg_s… | |
| pga_score_regressor | Rocket Classic | {'projected_avg_score': 67.62} | {'actual_order': 130, 'actual_position': None, 'actual_avg_… | |
| pga_score_regressor | Rocket Classic | {'projected_avg_score': 66.19} | {'actual_order': 27, 'actual_position': None, 'actual_avg_s… | |
| pga_score_regressor | Rocket Classic | {'projected_avg_score': 66.55} | {'actual_order': 118, 'actual_position': None, 'actual_avg_… | |
| pga_score_regressor | Rocket Classic | {'projected_avg_score': 67.92} | {'actual_order': 9, 'actual_position': None, 'actual_avg_sc… | |
| pga_score_regressor | Rocket Classic | {'projected_avg_score': 67.89} | {'actual_order': 137, 'actual_position': None, 'actual_avg_… | |
| pga_score_regressor | Rocket Classic | {'projected_avg_score': 66.24} | {'actual_order': 43, 'actual_position': None, 'actual_avg_s… | |
| pga_score_regressor | Rocket Classic | {'projected_avg_score': 68.07} | {'actual_order': 82, 'actual_position': None, 'actual_avg_s… |