Model grading

Every prediction shown on a detail page is persisted to ModelRun; once the actual outcome is knowable, it's stitched in. This page aggregates real-world accuracy as it lands, so the headline test-set numbers from training can be checked against deployed reality.

nhl_team_winner

6975 graded predictions
65%
in-the-wild accuracy
4523/6975
correct calls

pga_score_regressor

8561 graded predictions
Per-stat MAE (in-the-wild)
avg_round_score
4.1

ufc_fighter_stats

17182 graded predictions
Per-stat MAE (in-the-wild)
SigStrikesLanded
22.96
SigStrikesAttempted
50.27
TakedownsLanded
1.1
Knockdowns
0.34

ufc_method

8786 graded predictions
54%
in-the-wild accuracy
4703/8786
correct calls

wc26_match_winner

100 graded predictions

Recent graded calls

Graded Model Event Predicted Actual
nhl_team_winner PIT @ TBL {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 44, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 6, 'home_score': 2, 'winner_side': 'away'}
nhl_team_winner MTL @ TOR {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 44, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 1, 'home_score': 2, 'winner_side': 'home'}
nhl_team_winner NYR @ WSH {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 44, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 1, 'home_score': 5, 'winner_side': 'home'}
nhl_team_winner SEA @ VGK {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 44, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 3, 'home_score': 4, 'winner_side': 'home'}
nhl_team_winner MTL @ BUF {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 42, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 1, 'home_score': 5, 'winner_side': 'home'}
nhl_team_winner CHI @ COL {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 44, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 2, 'home_score': 4, 'winner_side': 'home'}
nhl_team_winner TBL @ DET {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 44, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 7, 'home_score': 6, 'winner_side': 'away'}
nhl_team_winner VAN @ EDM {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 44, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 2, 'home_score': 3, 'winner_side': 'home'}
nhl_team_winner DAL @ BOS {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 44, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 1, 'home_score': 3, 'winner_side': 'home'}
nhl_team_winner VAN @ PHI {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 42, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 5, 'home_score': 4, 'winner_side': 'away'}
nhl_team_winner NYI @ CAR {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 44, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 3, 'home_score': 6, 'winner_side': 'home'}
nhl_team_winner VAN @ DET {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 7, 'home_win… {'away_score': 1, 'home_score': 3, 'winner_side': 'home'}
nhl_team_winner OTT @ TOR {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 37, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 1, 'home_score': 3, 'winner_side': 'home'}
nhl_team_winner TBL @ WSH {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 69, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 2, 'home_score': 1, 'winner_side': 'away'}
nhl_team_winner MIN @ LAK {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 25, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 3, 'home_score': 2, 'winner_side': 'away'}
nhl_team_winner SEA @ CBJ {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 22, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 1, 'home_score': 2, 'winner_side': 'home'}
nhl_team_winner CHI @ NJD {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 42, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 3, 'home_score': 4, 'winner_side': 'home'}
nhl_team_winner CHI @ PIT {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 12, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 2, 'home_score': 5, 'winner_side': 'home'}
nhl_team_winner DAL @ OTT {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 47, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 2, 'home_score': 3, 'winner_side': 'home'}
nhl_team_winner MIN @ ANA {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 44, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 2, 'home_score': 1, 'winner_side': 'away'}
nhl_team_winner WPG @ SJS {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 44, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 3, 'home_score': 4, 'winner_side': 'home'}
nhl_team_winner ARI @ CBJ {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 44, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 2, 'home_score': 8, 'winner_side': 'home'}
nhl_team_winner CGY @ EDM {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 44, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 2, 'home_score': 5, 'winner_side': 'home'}
nhl_team_winner CAR @ NSH {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 82, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 3, 'home_score': 2, 'winner_side': 'away'}
nhl_team_winner SEA @ NSH {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 42, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 4, 'home_score': 3, 'winner_side': 'away'}
nhl_team_winner TOR @ OTT {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 42, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 2, 'home_score': 3, 'winner_side': 'home'}
nhl_team_winner NYI @ FLA {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 12, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 1, 'home_score': 5, 'winner_side': 'home'}
nhl_team_winner ARI @ BUF {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 7, 'home_win… {'away_score': 1, 'home_score': 2, 'winner_side': 'home'}
nhl_team_winner WPG @ ANA {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 44, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 1, 'home_score': 4, 'winner_side': 'home'}
nhl_team_winner NYR @ MTL {'model_name': 'baseline_gbm', 'away_win_pct': 50, 'home_wi… {'away_score': 3, 'home_score': 1, 'winner_side': 'away'}