Model grading

Every prediction shown on a detail page is persisted to ModelRun; once the actual outcome is knowable, it's stitched in. This page aggregates real-world accuracy as it lands, so the headline test-set numbers from training can be checked against deployed reality.

nhl_team_winner

6976 graded predictions
65%
in-the-wild accuracy
4524/6976
correct calls

pga_score_regressor

8833 graded predictions
Per-stat MAE (in-the-wild)
avg_round_score
4.84

ufc_fighter_stats

17374 graded predictions
Per-stat MAE (in-the-wild)
SigStrikesLanded
22.99
SigStrikesAttempted
50.3
TakedownsLanded
1.1
Knockdowns
0.34

ufc_method

8882 graded predictions
53%
in-the-wild accuracy
4751/8882
correct calls

wc26_match_winner

104 graded predictions

Recent graded calls

Graded Model Event Predicted Actual
ufc_method UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'class': 'Decision', 'probs': {'KO/TKO': 0.313, 'Decision'… {'method': 'Decision - Unanimous', 'ending_round': 3}
ufc_fighter_stats UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'Knockdowns': 0.2, 'TakedownsLanded': 1.3, 'SigStrikesLand… {'Knockdowns': 0, 'ControlTime': '0:26', 'TakedownsLanded':…
ufc_fighter_stats UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'Knockdowns': 0.2, 'TakedownsLanded': 0.4, 'SigStrikesLand… {'Knockdowns': 0, 'ControlTime': '0:12', 'TakedownsLanded':…
ufc_fighter_stats UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'Knockdowns': 0.2, 'TakedownsLanded': 1.2, 'SigStrikesLand… {'Knockdowns': 0, 'ControlTime': '3:02', 'TakedownsLanded':…
ufc_method UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'class': 'KO/TKO', 'probs': {'KO/TKO': 0.418, 'Decision': … {'method': 'Submission', 'ending_round': 2}
ufc_fighter_stats UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'Knockdowns': 0.3, 'TakedownsLanded': 0.5, 'SigStrikesLand… {'Knockdowns': 0, 'ControlTime': '0:37', 'TakedownsLanded':…
ufc_method UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'class': 'Decision', 'probs': {'KO/TKO': 0.25, 'Decision':… {'method': 'Decision - Unanimous', 'ending_round': 5}
ufc_fighter_stats UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'Knockdowns': 0.3, 'TakedownsLanded': 2.1, 'SigStrikesLand… {'Knockdowns': 0, 'ControlTime': '6:47', 'TakedownsLanded':…
ufc_fighter_stats UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'Knockdowns': 0.0, 'TakedownsLanded': 1.1, 'SigStrikesLand… {'Knockdowns': 0, 'ControlTime': '10:48', 'TakedownsLanded'…
ufc_fighter_stats UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'Knockdowns': 0.1, 'TakedownsLanded': 1.4, 'SigStrikesLand… {'Knockdowns': 0, 'ControlTime': '0:23', 'TakedownsLanded':…
ufc_fighter_stats UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'Knockdowns': 0.3, 'TakedownsLanded': 1.7, 'SigStrikesLand… {'Knockdowns': 0, 'ControlTime': '6:20', 'TakedownsLanded':…
ufc_method UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'class': 'KO/TKO', 'probs': {'KO/TKO': 0.434, 'Decision': … {'method': 'Submission', 'ending_round': 3}
ufc_fighter_stats UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'Knockdowns': 0.5, 'TakedownsLanded': 0.4, 'SigStrikesLand… {'Knockdowns': 0, 'ControlTime': '0:00', 'TakedownsLanded':…
ufc_fighter_stats UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'Knockdowns': 0.3, 'TakedownsLanded': 0.7, 'SigStrikesLand… {'Knockdowns': 1, 'ControlTime': '0:05', 'TakedownsLanded':…
ufc_method UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'class': 'KO/TKO', 'probs': {'KO/TKO': 0.421, 'Decision': … {'method': 'KO/TKO', 'ending_round': 1}
ufc_fighter_stats UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'Knockdowns': 0.5, 'TakedownsLanded': 0.5, 'SigStrikesLand… {'Knockdowns': 0, 'ControlTime': '0:00', 'TakedownsLanded':…
ufc_method UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'class': 'Decision', 'probs': {'KO/TKO': 0.461, 'Decision'… {'method': 'KO/TKO', 'ending_round': 2}
ufc_fighter_stats UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'Knockdowns': 0.3, 'TakedownsLanded': 0.4, 'SigStrikesLand… {'Knockdowns': 0, 'ControlTime': '0:19', 'TakedownsLanded':…
ufc_fighter_stats UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'Knockdowns': 0.1, 'TakedownsLanded': 1.5, 'SigStrikesLand… {'Knockdowns': 0, 'ControlTime': '0:55', 'TakedownsLanded':…
ufc_fighter_stats UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'Knockdowns': 0.3, 'TakedownsLanded': 0.8, 'SigStrikesLand… {'Knockdowns': 2, 'ControlTime': '0:09', 'TakedownsLanded':…
ufc_method UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'class': 'Decision', 'probs': {'KO/TKO': 0.444, 'Decision'… {'method': 'KO/TKO', 'ending_round': 3}
ufc_fighter_stats UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'Knockdowns': 0.2, 'TakedownsLanded': 2.7, 'SigStrikesLand… {'Knockdowns': 1, 'ControlTime': '12:30', 'TakedownsLanded'…
ufc_fighter_stats UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'Knockdowns': 0.3, 'TakedownsLanded': -0.1, 'SigStrikesLan… {'Knockdowns': 0, 'ControlTime': '0:34', 'TakedownsLanded':…
ufc_method UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'class': 'Decision', 'probs': {'KO/TKO': 0.241, 'Decision'… {'method': 'Decision - Unanimous', 'ending_round': 5}
ufc_fighter_stats UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'Knockdowns': 0.2, 'TakedownsLanded': 1.1, 'SigStrikesLand… {'Knockdowns': 1, 'ControlTime': '1:12', 'TakedownsLanded':…
ufc_fighter_stats UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'Knockdowns': 0.2, 'TakedownsLanded': 0.6, 'SigStrikesLand… {'Knockdowns': 0, 'ControlTime': '0:13', 'TakedownsLanded':…
ufc_method UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'class': 'Decision', 'probs': {'KO/TKO': 0.276, 'Decision'… {'method': 'Submission', 'ending_round': 3}
ufc_fighter_stats UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'Knockdowns': 0.2, 'TakedownsLanded': 5.0, 'SigStrikesLand… {'Knockdowns': 1, 'ControlTime': '0:00', 'TakedownsLanded':…
ufc_fighter_stats UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'Knockdowns': 0.1, 'TakedownsLanded': 0.2, 'SigStrikesLand… {'Knockdowns': 0, 'ControlTime': '0:03', 'TakedownsLanded':…
ufc_method UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado … {'class': 'Decision', 'probs': {'KO/TKO': 0.259, 'Decision'… {'method': 'KO/TKO', 'ending_round': 1}