Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mana Martinez
Drako Rodriguez
63%
37%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
24
Age
Δ 0y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Martinez: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Rodriguez: 3 sig / 1 TD
Mana Martinez
Drako Rodriguez
37
Sig strikes landed
34
77
Sig strikes attempted
72
53
Total strikes landed
46
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
141s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mana Martinez
"ManaBoi"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Drako Rodriguez
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24