Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Phil Hawes
Khadzhi Bestaev
81%
19%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
32
Age
Δ 1y
32
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hawes: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Bestaev: 8 sig / 0 TD
Phil Hawes
Khadzhi Bestaev
31
Sig strikes landed
48
85
Sig strikes attempted
98
47
Total strikes landed
70
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
118s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Phil Hawes
"No Hype"
12-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DWCS 1.4
—
Blue corner
Khadzhi Bestaev
"Best"
0-0
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
76"
Age
32