Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Aliaskhab Khizriev
Henrique Shiguemoto
72%
28%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Khizriev: 5 sig / 1 TD ·
Shiguemoto: 3 sig / 0 TD
Aliaskhab Khizriev
Henrique Shiguemoto
37
Sig strikes landed
34
74
Sig strikes attempted
71
77
Total strikes landed
47
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
169s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Aliaskhab Khizriev
"Black Wolf"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
Blue corner
Henrique Shiguemoto
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31