Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Cameron Church
Sherrard Blackledge
50%
50%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Church: 60 sig / 0 TD ·
Blackledge: 74 sig / 6 TD
Cameron Church
Sherrard Blackledge
30
Sig strikes landed
33
65
Sig strikes attempted
74
40
Total strikes landed
48
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
123s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Cameron Church
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Sherrard Blackledge
"The Thriller"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27