Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tafon Nchukwi
Al Matavao
57%
43%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 10"
68"
26
Age
Δ 1y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Nchukwi: 47 sig / 0 TD ·
Matavao: 55 sig / 0 TD
Tafon Nchukwi
Al Matavao
35
Sig strikes landed
31
75
Sig strikes attempted
64
43
Total strikes landed
44
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
118s
Control time
149s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Tafon Nchukwi
"Da Don"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Al Matavao
"Sweetness"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27