Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jose Johnson
Ronnie Lawrence
61%
39%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
25
Age
Δ 3y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Johnson: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Lawrence: 28 sig / 12 TD
Jose Johnson
Ronnie Lawrence
41
Sig strikes landed
32
84
Sig strikes attempted
65
57
Total strikes landed
47
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
148s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jose Johnson
"Zhakwarius"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Ronnie Lawrence
"The Heat"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
28