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Main Flyweight

Jimmy Flick vs Nate Smith

DWCS 4.5 ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Jimmy Flick
Nate Smith
56% 44%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
30
Age
Δ 5y
25

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Flick: 27 sig / 2 TD · Smith: 17 sig / 0 TD
Jimmy Flick
Nate Smith
40
Sig strikes landed
34
80
Sig strikes attempted
74
55
Total strikes landed
43
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
140s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Jimmy Flick

"The Brick"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner

Nate Smith

"The Savage"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
25