Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dennis Buzukja
Melsik Baghdasaryan
73%
27%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
23
Age
Δ 6y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Buzukja: 57 sig / 2 TD ·
Baghdasaryan: 102 sig / 0 TD
Dennis Buzukja
Melsik Baghdasaryan
38
Sig strikes landed
33
78
Sig strikes attempted
72
55
Total strikes landed
44
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
158s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Dennis Buzukja
"The Great"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
23
Blue corner
Melsik Baghdasaryan
"The Gun"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29