Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Andre Ewell
Irwin Rivera
74%
26%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 8"
67"
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
18-9
Career record
Δ 2 pp
11-6
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Ewell: 123 sig / 0 TD ·
Rivera: 81 sig / 1 TD
Andre Ewell
Irwin Rivera
59
Sig strikes landed
44
142
Sig strikes attempted
107
80
Total strikes landed
48
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.3
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
104s
Control time
51s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Andre Ewell
"Mr. Highlight"
18-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
L
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
Blue corner
W1
Irwin Rivera
"The Beast"
11-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—