Prelims1
Bantamweight
Journey Newson vs Randy Costa
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Journey Newson
Randy Costa
47%
53%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 6"
73"
32
Age
Δ 5y
26
10-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
7-4
L1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Newson: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Costa: 4 sig / 0 TD
Journey Newson
Randy Costa
39
Sig strikes landed
45
92
Sig strikes attempted
99
51
Total strikes landed
49
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
109s
Control time
30s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Journey Newson
10-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
Blue corner
W1
Randy Costa
"The Zohan"
7-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
L
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—