Back to UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
Prelims1 Featherweight

Mirsad Bektic vs Damon Jackson

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Mirsad Bektic
Damon Jackson
51% 49%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
30
Age
Δ 2y
32
13-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
23-8-2
L2
Current streak
D1
9
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Bektic: 13 sig / 7 TD · Jackson: 12 sig / 0 TD
Mirsad Bektic
Damon Jackson
29
Sig strikes landed
25
55
Sig strikes attempted
52
58
Total strikes landed
47
3.3
Takedowns landed
1.1
5.8
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
289s
Control time
145s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
26%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Mirsad Bektic

13-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
L UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
W UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
L UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
Blue corner
D1

Damon Jackson

"The Leech"
23-8-2 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database 3 fights · 0-1
Last 2
D UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
L UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—