Back to UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
Prelims1 Flyweight

Jordan Espinosa vs David Dvorak

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jordan Espinosa
David Dvorak
31% 69%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
16-9
Career record
Δ 14 pp
21-6
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Espinosa: 50 sig / 0 TD · Dvorak: 68 sig / 0 TD
Jordan Espinosa
David Dvorak
44
Sig strikes landed
53
111
Sig strikes attempted
112
56
Total strikes landed
74
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
74s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
80%
KO/TKO
10%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Jordan Espinosa

"The Gamer"
16-9 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
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L UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
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L UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
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Blue corner
W1

David Dvorak

"Undertaker"
21-6
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
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