Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kevin Holland
Darren Stewart
84%
16%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 7"
74"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
30-15
Career record
Δ 5 pp
13-8
W2
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Holland: 74 sig / 0 TD ·
Stewart: 57 sig / 3 TD
Kevin Holland
Darren Stewart
45
Sig strikes landed
23
91
Sig strikes attempted
56
76
Total strikes landed
34
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.1
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
120s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
W3
Darren Stewart
"The Dentist"
13-8
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
W
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—