Main
Women's Strawweight
Mackenzie Dern vs Randa Markos
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mackenzie Dern
Randa Markos
88%
12%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 0"
64"
28
Age
Δ 8y
35
17-5
Career record
Δ 33 pp
11-13-1
W1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Dern: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Markos: 3 sig / 0 TD
Mackenzie Dern
Randa Markos
44
Sig strikes landed
38
94
Sig strikes attempted
75
74
Total strikes landed
50
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
149s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mackenzie Dern
17-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
Blue corner
L1
Randa Markos
"Quiet Storm"
11-13-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
14 fights · 6-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
L
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—