Main
Light Heavyweight
Johnny Walker vs Ryan Spann
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Johnny Walker
Ryan Spann
57%
43%
Why
82"
Reach
Δ 3"
79"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
22-11
Career record
Δ 3 pp
25-11
L2
Current streak
W4
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Walker: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
Spann: 7 sig / 2 TD
Johnny Walker
Ryan Spann
23
Sig strikes landed
22
52
Sig strikes attempted
45
35
Total strikes landed
39
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.6
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
74s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Johnny Walker
22-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
Blue corner
W4
Ryan Spann
"Superman"
25-11
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—