Back to UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
Main Middleweight

Khamzat Chimaev vs Gerald Meerschaert

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Khamzat Chimaev
Gerald Meerschaert
70% 30%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
26
Age
Δ 6y
33
16-1
Career record
Δ 32 pp
37-23
W2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
11

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Chimaev: 4 sig / 0 TD · Meerschaert: 0 sig / 0 TD
Khamzat Chimaev
Gerald Meerschaert
35
Sig strikes landed
25
65
Sig strikes attempted
56
45
Total strikes landed
33
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.2
3.2
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
242s
Control time
53s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
31%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Khamzat Chimaev

"Borz"
16-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
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Blue corner
L1

Gerald Meerschaert

"GM3"
37-23
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database 11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
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W UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
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L UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
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W UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
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