Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
Niko Price
76%
24%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
38
Age
Δ 6y
31
36-18
Career record
Δ 10 pp
16-12
L4
Current streak
L1
35
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 3
Cerrone: 113 sig / 0 TD ·
Price: 150 sig / 0 TD
Donald Cerrone
Niko Price
45
Sig strikes landed
51
105
Sig strikes attempted
99
46
Total strikes landed
54
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.60
Knockdowns
0.30
72s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
63%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L4
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
36-18
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
35 fights · 23-12
Last 5
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
Blue corner
L1
Niko Price
"The Hybrid"
16-12
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
L
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
L
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—