Back to UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
Main Welterweight

Colby Covington vs Tyron Woodley

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Colby Covington
Tyron Woodley
71% 29%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
33
Age
Δ 6y
38
17-6
Career record
Δ 6 pp
19-8-1
L1
Current streak
L2
12
UFC fights in our DB
14

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 5
Covington: 78 sig / 3 TD · Woodley: 34 sig / 1 TD
Colby Covington
Tyron Woodley
64
Sig strikes landed
45
144
Sig strikes attempted
99
129
Total strikes landed
53
3.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
7.6
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
403s
Control time
20s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Colby Covington

"Chaos"
17-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 12 fights · 10-2
Last 5
L UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
Blue corner
L2

Tyron Woodley

"The Chosen One"
19-8-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database 14 fights · 9-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
L UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
W UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—