Prelims1
Women's Bantamweight
Jessica-Rose Clark vs Sarah Alpar
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jessica-Rose Clark
Sarah Alpar
49%
51%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 2"
63"
33
Age
Δ 3y
29
L2
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Clark: 76 sig / 1 TD ·
Alpar: 12 sig / 2 TD
Jessica-Rose Clark
Sarah Alpar
50
Sig strikes landed
50
95
Sig strikes attempted
104
73
Total strikes landed
81
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
176s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Jessica-Rose Clark
11-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
Blue corner
Sarah Alpar
"Too Sweet"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29