Back to UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill
Prelims1 Heavyweight

Alexandr Romanov vs Roque Martinez

UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Alexandr Romanov
Roque Martinez
80% 20%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
30
Age
Δ 5y
34

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Romanov: 55 sig / 4 TD · Martinez: 7 sig / 0 TD
Alexandr Romanov
Roque Martinez
40
Sig strikes landed
28
78
Sig strikes attempted
56
58
Total strikes landed
46
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
127s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Alexandr Romanov

"King Kong"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
Blue corner

Roque Martinez

0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35