Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
King Green
Alan Patrick
75%
25%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
34
Age
Δ 3y
37
36-17-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
15-5
W2
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Green: 61 sig / 4 TD ·
Patrick: 19 sig / 1 TD
King Green
Alan Patrick
50
Sig strikes landed
39
81
Sig strikes attempted
82
67
Total strikes landed
49
0.8
Takedowns landed
2.1
1.5
Takedowns attempted
7.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
95s
Control time
230s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
King Green
36-17-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
13 fights · 7-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
Blue corner
L1
Alan Patrick
"Nuguette"
15-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—