Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Billy Quarantillo
Kyle Nelson
63%
37%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
32
Age
Δ 2y
29
19-7
Career record
Δ 4 pp
18-7-1
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Quarantillo: 79 sig / 2 TD ·
Nelson: 56 sig / 0 TD
Billy Quarantillo
Kyle Nelson
35
Sig strikes landed
30
70
Sig strikes attempted
69
65
Total strikes landed
46
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.2
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
222s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Billy Quarantillo
19-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
Blue corner
W1
Kyle Nelson
"The Monster"
18-7-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
L
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—