Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Ed Herman
Mike Rodriguez
57%
43%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 6"
82"
40
Age
Δ 8y
32
28-16
Career record
Δ 0 pp
12-7
W2
Current streak
W1
14
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Herman: 40 sig / 2 TD ·
Rodriguez: 89 sig / 0 TD
Ed Herman
Mike Rodriguez
35
Sig strikes landed
38
55
Sig strikes attempted
109
49
Total strikes landed
68
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.70
125s
Control time
78s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Ed Herman
"Short Fuse"
28-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
14 fights · 8-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
L
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
Blue corner
W1
Mike Rodriguez
"Slo Mike"
12-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
83"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
L
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—