Main
Women's Flyweight
Roxanne Modafferi vs Andrea Lee
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Roxanne Modafferi
Andrea Lee
52%
48%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
38
Age
Δ 6y
32
25-22
Career record
Δ 1 pp
13-12
L1
Current streak
L2
8
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Modafferi: 60 sig / 4 TD ·
Lee: 97 sig / 3 TD
Roxanne Modafferi
Andrea Lee
64
Sig strikes landed
68
168
Sig strikes attempted
153
111
Total strikes landed
89
2.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
6.3
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
265s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
88%
KO/TKO
7%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Roxanne Modafferi
"The Happy Warrior"
25-22
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
Blue corner
L2
Andrea Lee
"KGB"
13-12
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
L
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—