Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ottman Azaitar
Khama Worthy
68%
32%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
31
Age
Δ 3y
34
14-3
Career record
Δ 17 pp
17-9
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Azaitar: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Worthy: 1 sig / 0 TD
Ottman Azaitar
Khama Worthy
33
Sig strikes landed
35
68
Sig strikes attempted
82
39
Total strikes landed
33
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
57s
Control time
21s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
70%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ottman Azaitar
"Bulldozer"
14-3
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
Blue corner
W2
Khama Worthy
"The Death Star"
17-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—