Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Andre Muniz
Bartosz Fabinski
74%
26%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
25-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
15-6
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Muniz: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Fabinski: 5 sig / 1 TD
Andre Muniz
Bartosz Fabinski
17
Sig strikes landed
12
21
Sig strikes attempted
20
40
Total strikes landed
23
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
162s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Andre Muniz
"Sergipano"
25-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
Blue corner
L1
Bartosz Fabinski
"The Butcher"
15-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—