Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michel Pereira
Zelim Imadaev
80%
20%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
27
Age
Δ 1y
26
32-15
Career record
Δ 1 pp
8-4
L2
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Pereira: 88 sig / 1 TD ·
Imadaev: 23 sig / 0 TD
Michel Pereira
Zelim Imadaev
44
Sig strikes landed
36
92
Sig strikes attempted
82
65
Total strikes landed
48
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.1
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
90s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Michel Pereira
"Demolidor"
32-15
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
L2
Zelim Imadaev
8-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
L
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—