Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Brian Kelleher
Ray Rodriguez
52%
48%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
34
Age
Δ 1y
33
L1
Current streak
—
9
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Kelleher: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Rodriguez: 1 sig / 1 TD
Brian Kelleher
Ray Rodriguez
42
Sig strikes landed
45
93
Sig strikes attempted
96
54
Total strikes landed
54
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
109s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Brian Kelleher
"Boom"
24-17
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Switch
Age
34
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
L
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
L
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
Blue corner
Ray Rodriguez
"The Judge"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33