Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Carlos Condit
Court McGee
74%
26%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
36
Age
Δ 1y
36
32-15
Career record
Δ 8 pp
23-15
L5
Current streak
L2
14
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Condit: 88 sig / 0 TD ·
McGee: 84 sig / 0 TD
Carlos Condit
Court McGee
72
Sig strikes landed
69
155
Sig strikes attempted
155
88
Total strikes landed
94
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
0.9
Takedowns attempted
5.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
41s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L5
Carlos Condit
"The Natural Born Killer"
32-15
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
14 fights · 6-8
Last 5
L
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
L
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
L
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
Blue corner
L2
Court McGee
"The Crusher"
23-15
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
16 fights · 8-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—