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Prelims1 Featherweight

Charles Jourdain vs Josh Culibao

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Charles Jourdain
Josh Culibao
69% 31%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
25
Age
Δ 2y
26
18-9-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
11-5-1
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Jourdain: 44 sig / 0 TD · Culibao: 46 sig / 0 TD
Charles Jourdain
Josh Culibao
44
Sig strikes landed
45
101
Sig strikes attempted
105
56
Total strikes landed
48
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
0.5
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
64s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Charles Jourdain

"Air"
18-9-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
25
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
W UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
L UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
Blue corner
L1

Josh Culibao

"Kuya"
11-5-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…