Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yorgan De Castro
Carlos Felipe
32%
68%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
34
Age
Δ 8y
26
6-4
Career record
Δ 19 pp
11-3
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
De Castro: 48 sig / 0 TD ·
Felipe: 78 sig / 0 TD
Yorgan De Castro
Carlos Felipe
39
Sig strikes landed
36
90
Sig strikes attempted
89
61
Total strikes landed
42
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.0
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
104s
Control time
60s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Yorgan De Castro
"The Mad Titan"
6-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
Blue corner
L1
Carlos Felipe
"Boi"
11-3
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—