Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Holly Holm
Irene Aldana
50%
50%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
39
Age
Δ 6y
32
16-7
Career record
Δ 3 pp
16-8
W1
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Holm: 154 sig / 5 TD ·
Aldana: 69 sig / 0 TD
Holly Holm
Irene Aldana
67
Sig strikes landed
59
158
Sig strikes attempted
140
95
Total strikes landed
76
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.3
5.9
Takedowns attempted
0.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
158s
Control time
46s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Holly Holm
"The Preacher's Daughter"
16-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
L
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
L
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
Blue corner
W2
Irene Aldana
16-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
W
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—