Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sean Brady
Christian Aguilera
83%
17%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
20-2
Career record
Δ 26 pp
15-8
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Brady: 34 sig / 2 TD ·
Aguilera: 16 sig / 0 TD
Sean Brady
Christian Aguilera
48
Sig strikes landed
42
91
Sig strikes attempted
85
62
Total strikes landed
40
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.6
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
176s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Sean Brady
20-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
Blue corner
W1
Christian Aguilera
"The Beast"
15-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—