Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Alex Caceres
Austin Springer
54%
46%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
32
Age
Δ 1y
33
W2
Current streak
—
22
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Caceres: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Springer: 14 sig / 0 TD
Alex Caceres
Austin Springer
57
Sig strikes landed
43
107
Sig strikes attempted
102
68
Total strikes landed
56
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.9
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
79s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
22-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
22 fights · 11-10
Last 5
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
Austin Springer
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33