Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Robbie Lawler
Neil Magny
41%
59%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
80"
38
Age
Δ 5y
33
30-17
Career record
Δ 4 pp
32-15
L3
Current streak
W2
14
UFC fights in our DB
22
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lawler: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
Magny: 62 sig / 4 TD
Robbie Lawler
Neil Magny
62
Sig strikes landed
74
121
Sig strikes attempted
171
81
Total strikes landed
92
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.4
0.9
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
99s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Robbie Lawler
"Ruthless"
30-17
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
W
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
L
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
Blue corner
W2
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
32-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
22 fights · 16-6
Last 5
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—
W
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—