Main
Light Heavyweight
Anthony Smith vs Aleksandar Rakic
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Anthony Smith
Aleksandar Rakic
67%
33%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
32
Age
Δ 4y
29
38-23
Career record
Δ 4 pp
14-7
L1
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Smith: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Rakic: 44 sig / 0 TD
Anthony Smith
Aleksandar Rakic
44
Sig strikes landed
55
101
Sig strikes attempted
107
54
Total strikes landed
63
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
45s
Control time
191s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Anthony Smith
"Lionheart"
38-23
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
L
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
Blue corner
L1
Aleksandar Rakic
"Rocket"
14-7
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—