Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Juan Espino
Jeff Hughes
56%
44%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
40
Age
Δ 8y
32
12-2
Career record
Δ 19 pp
10-5
W1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Espino: 10 sig / 5 TD ·
Hughes: 0 sig / 0 TD
Juan Espino
Jeff Hughes
38
Sig strikes landed
24
68
Sig strikes attempted
37
57
Total strikes landed
35
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.4
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
295s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Juan Espino
"El Guapo"
12-2
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
Blue corner
L2
Jeff Hughes
"Lights Out"
10-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—