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Prelims2 Light Heavyweight

Khadis Ibragimov vs Danilo Marques

UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa ·Flash Forum
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Khadis Ibragimov
Danilo Marques
64% 36%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
25
Age
Δ 9y
35
L3
Current streak
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3
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ibragimov: 19 sig / 0 TD · Marques: 16 sig / 4 TD
Khadis Ibragimov
Danilo Marques
38
Sig strikes landed
40
78
Sig strikes attempted
79
53
Total strikes landed
58
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
165s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Khadis Ibragimov

8-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
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L UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
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L UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
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Blue corner

Danilo Marques

0-0
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35