Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brad Riddell
Alex Da Silva
25%
75%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
29
Age
Δ 4y
25
11-4
Career record
Δ 11 pp
22-4
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Riddell: 67 sig / 1 TD ·
Da Silva: 54 sig / 3 TD
Brad Riddell
Alex Da Silva
33
Sig strikes landed
32
71
Sig strikes attempted
74
52
Total strikes landed
61
0.2
Takedowns landed
3.2
1.2
Takedowns attempted
8.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
49s
Control time
352s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
10%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Brad Riddell
"Quake"
11-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
W
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
Blue corner
W1
Alex Da Silva
"Leko"
22-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—