Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Hakeem Dawodu
Zubaira Tukhugov
51%
49%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
68"
29
Age
Δ 0y
30
14-4-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
21-6-1
W4
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Dawodu: 69 sig / 0 TD ·
Tukhugov: 35 sig / 1 TD
Hakeem Dawodu
Zubaira Tukhugov
43
Sig strikes landed
46
109
Sig strikes attempted
118
58
Total strikes landed
54
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
41s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Hakeem Dawodu
"Mean"
14-4-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
Blue corner
W1
Zubaira Tukhugov
"Warrior"
21-6-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
D
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—