Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Diego Sanchez
Jake Matthews
40%
60%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
39
Age
Δ 13y
26
32-13
Career record
Δ 4 pp
24-8
W1
Current streak
W2
18
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sanchez: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Matthews: 72 sig / 1 TD
Diego Sanchez
Jake Matthews
27
Sig strikes landed
51
66
Sig strikes attempted
91
45
Total strikes landed
64
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.8
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
105s
Control time
189s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Diego Sanchez
"Nightmare"
32-13
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database
18 fights · 9-9
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
L
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
Blue corner
W2
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
24-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
W
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—