🏆 Title fight
Main
Light Heavyweight
Dominick Reyes vs Jan Blachowicz
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
·Flash Forum
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Dominick Reyes
Jan Blachowicz
54%
46%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
31
Age
Δ 7y
38
16-6
Career record
Δ 3 pp
30-11-2
L1
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Reyes: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Blachowicz: 41 sig / 0 TD
Dominick Reyes
Jan Blachowicz
59
Sig strikes landed
54
120
Sig strikes attempted
111
75
Total strikes landed
67
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
81s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
64%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dominick Reyes
"The Devastator"
16-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
L
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
Blue corner
W3
Jan Blachowicz
30-11-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—