Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kai Kara-France
Brandon Royval
70%
30%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
28
Age
Δ 1y
28
26-12
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-9
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Kara-France: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Royval: 39 sig / 0 TD
Kai Kara-France
Brandon Royval
36
Sig strikes landed
46
100
Sig strikes attempted
113
57
Total strikes landed
49
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.0
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
137s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
42%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Kai Kara-France
"Don't Blink"
26-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
L
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
W
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
Blue corner
W1
Brandon Royval
"Raw Dawg"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—