🏆 Title fight
Main
Middleweight
Israel Adesanya vs Paulo Costa
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
·Flash Forum
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Israel Adesanya
Paulo Costa
73%
27%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 8"
72"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
25-6
Career record
Δ 0 pp
17-4
W8
Current streak
W5
8
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Adesanya: 55 sig / 0 TD ·
Costa: 12 sig / 0 TD
Israel Adesanya
Paulo Costa
77
Sig strikes landed
64
167
Sig strikes attempted
138
78
Total strikes landed
69
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.4
0.7
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
69s
Control time
51s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
71%
Submission
3%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Israel Adesanya
"The Last Stylebender"
25-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 8-0
Last 5
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
W
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
W
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
W
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
Blue corner
W5
Paulo Costa
"The Eraser"
17-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—