Back to DWCS 4.3
Main Welterweight

Orion Cosce vs Matt Dixon

DWCS 4.3 ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Orion Cosce
Matt Dixon
52% 48%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
26
Age
Δ 1y
25

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Cosce: 67 sig / 1 TD · Dixon: 29 sig / 3 TD
Orion Cosce
Matt Dixon
34
Sig strikes landed
38
72
Sig strikes attempted
77
48
Total strikes landed
55
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
162s
Control time
208s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
32%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Orion Cosce

"Galaxy"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
Blue corner

Matt Dixon

"Magic"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
25