Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Parisian
Chad Johnson
68%
32%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
80"
31
Age
Δ 3y
34
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Parisian: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Johnson: 22 sig / 0 TD
Josh Parisian
Chad Johnson
24
Sig strikes landed
21
58
Sig strikes attempted
38
35
Total strikes landed
24
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.2
0.9
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.70
Knockdowns
0.30
55s
Control time
30s
Method
Decision
12%
KO/TKO
79%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Josh Parisian
16-8
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
DWCS 2.3
—
Blue corner
Chad Johnson
"Big Rigg"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34