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Prelims1 Welterweight

Carlton Minus vs Matthew Semelsberger

UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Carlton Minus
Matthew Semelsberger
66% 34%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
27
Age
Δ 0y
28

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Minus: 77 sig / 0 TD · Semelsberger: 118 sig / 2 TD
Carlton Minus
Matthew Semelsberger
35
Sig strikes landed
36
69
Sig strikes attempted
76
53
Total strikes landed
51
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
143s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Carlton Minus

"Clutch"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner

Matthew Semelsberger

"Semi The Jedi"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
28