Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Timur Valiev
Trevin Jones
79%
21%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
31
Age
Δ 0y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 2
Valiev: 66 sig / 0 TD ·
Jones: 26 sig / 1 TD
Timur Valiev
Trevin Jones
41
Sig strikes landed
35
79
Sig strikes attempted
78
61
Total strikes landed
51
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
179s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Timur Valiev
"Lucky"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Trevin Jones
"5 Star"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30